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If enough of them changed in red states in a close race, it could deny Mr Trump victory in the electoral college. It is simple to forget that Mr Trump loses elections.

The factor Mr Trump projects so hard against the dependability of the tally box is that he knows the tally box can defeat him.

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We will make America safe again. And we will make America great once again,” he told the CPAC audience.

Do not question that he will. If anything, dramatic actions against him by the Justice Department, in this case tied to classified info Trump presumably took with him from the White House, according to an NBC source familiar with what occurred, is just likely to grease those ambitions further.

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Any fear he has of losing has actually certainly been displaced by a more major one: doing time. Trump must pine for the Justice Department’s guard from prosecution that the presidential seal affords. Trump might think that an indictment might help his political profile, promoting his longtime project style of being an aggrieved martyr.

Even if Trump were convicted before the 2024 election, it would not likely be much before. He would practically certainly be out on bail, still running for the presidency and claiming that the decision would be reversed on appeal. Since late July, Trump stayed the leading option for the Republican governmental nomination, with about 50% support, according to the Real, Clear, Politics survey average and nearly every individual survey that reveals him with enormous double-digit leads over his closest rival.

Among those arguing Trump won’t run once again was Michael Cohen. Cohen’s observation appeared sensible then.

In recent weeks, we have actually witnessed an avalanche of evidence from your home committee investigating the occasions of Jan. 6 about Trump’s potential criminality leading up to and on that fateful day. Even before Monday’s search, we saw news of an accelerating Justice Department investigation considering whether Trump attempted to reverse the 2020 election.

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And in February, the National Archives asked for that the Justice Department take a look at whether Trump’s handling of White House records broke federal law. Any fear he has of losing has actually certainly been displaced by a more serious one: doing time. Trump needs to crave the Justice Department’s shield from prosecution that the governmental seal affords.

And once the presidency is won, are your people going to enforce the rules versus you? As for Cohen’s assertion that Trump would surrender his reliability if he lost a second time, where’s the proof that his fans would disbelieve his inevitable claim that he actually won? Indeed, isn’t the threat to his moneymaking device greater if he drops the prospect of going back to the White House? His political relevance would be outshone by that of those who get the torch, while his name might be in the headlines mainly for his entanglement with the law.

Offered all these factors, whatever legal jeopardy he might remain in, expect a Trump statement not long after the midterms saying he plans to be the very first president to have ever had an election stolen and lived to win four years later on.

Exists a Democrat who can handle Biden? (Alex Samuels, politics reporter): I don’t believe so, Sarah, especially if Trump is the nominee. If Trump reveals that he’s running for a 2nd term, I believe: 1) Biden will run again, and 2) there will not be a harmful main to take him down.

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Bernie Sanders stepping up to the plate and bring in a decent share of the vote, but in 2024, I do not think he ‘d bother, or be successful. More like frenemies., senior elections expert): That’s an excellent point, Alex, about Democrats likely not wanting to get involved in an untidy primary.

If Trump looms large, that might motivate greater Democratic unity. Regardless, though, it’s really difficult to take on an incumbent president in a primary no incumbent has ever lost renomination in the contemporary governmental primary period.

Yeah, and the incumbent presidents who have dealt with severe renomination battles (e. g., previous President Jimmy Carter) lost their subsequent general election. No Democrat will wish to be blamed for tanking Biden’s possibilities against Trump. Another complication: I understand surveys show that Democrats largely don’t want Biden to run again, but celebration elites aren’t acting that way.

Carolyn Maloney stated she didn’t believe Biden would run again in 2024. Her main opponents leapt all over her, and she had to ask forgiveness!.?.!! To me, that’s the sign of a celebration united behind their leader. (It’s practically Trump-like!) Yeah, I don’t see anybody running if Biden makes good on his stated intention to run again.