If Trump Runs Will He Win for Beginners
If enough of them changed in red states in a close race, it could deny Mr Trump victory in the electoral college. It is easy to forget that Mr Trump loses elections.
The factor Mr Trump campaigns so hard versus the reliability of the ballot box is that he understands the tally box can beat him.
We will make America safe again. And we will make America fantastic again,” he informed the CPAC audience.
and we may need to do it again.” Do not doubt that he will. The FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago house in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday looks like it would put the brakes on the former president’s political aspirations. If anything, dramatic actions against him by the Justice Department, in this case connected to classified details Trump supposedly took with him from the White House, according to an NBC source familiar with what happened, is just likely to grease those ambitions even more.
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Any fear he has of losing has actually undoubtedly been displaced by a more serious one: doing time. Trump must pine for the Justice Department’s guard from prosecution that the presidential seal pays for. Trump may think that an indictment might assist his political profile, promoting his longtime project theme of being an aggrieved martyr.
He would practically surely be out on bail, still running for the presidency and declaring that the verdict would be reversed on appeal.
Among those arguing Trump won’t run again was Michael Cohen. Cohen’s observation appeared sensible then.
In current weeks, we’ve witnessed an avalanche of evidence from the House committee investigating the occasions of Jan. 6 about Trump’s possible criminality leading up to and on that fateful day.
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Any worry he has of losing has actually certainly been displaced by a more severe one: doing time.
And once the presidency is won, are your people going to enforce the guidelines against you? As for Cohen’s assertion that Trump would surrender his credibility if he lost a 2nd time, where’s the evidence that his fans would disbelieve his unavoidable claim that he actually won? Indeed, isn’t the risk to his moneymaking device greater if he drops the prospect of going back to the White Home? His political relevance would be outperformed by that of those who choose up the torch, while his name could be in the headings predominantly for his entanglement with the law.
Given all these aspects, whatever legal jeopardy he might be in, expect a Trump announcement not long after the midterms saying he means to be the very first president to have ever had an election taken and lived to win four years later.
Is there a Democrat who can take on Biden? (Alex Samuels, politics reporter): I don’t think so, Sarah, particularly if Trump is the candidate. If Trump announces that he’s running for a second term, I think: 1) Biden will run once again, and 2) there will not be a damaging main to take him down.
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Bernie Sanders stepping up to the plate and bring in a decent share of the vote, but in 2024, I do not think he ‘d bother, or succeed. Sanders has currently said that he will not run versus Biden. (They’re friends!) More like frenemies. Ugh, we need more political relationship stories. (Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections expert): That’s an asset, Alex, about Democrats likely not desiring to get involved in a messy primary.
If Trump looms large, that may motivate greater Democratic unity. Regardless, though, it’s really tough to take on an incumbent president in a primary no incumbent has ever lost renomination in the modern-day presidential primary period.
Yeah, and the incumbent presidents who have actually faced major renomination battles (e. g., previous President Jimmy Carter) lost their subsequent basic election. No Democrat will wish to be blamed for tanking Biden’s opportunities against Trump. Another issue: I know surveys reveal that Democrats largely don’t desire Biden to run again, however party elites aren’t acting that way.
Carolyn Maloney said she didn’t believe Biden would run once again in 2024. Her primary opponents jumped all over her, and she needed to say sorry!.?.!! To me, that’s the indication of a party united behind their leader. (It’s almost Trump-like!) Yeah, I don’t see anyone running if Biden makes great on his stated intent to run again.