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If enough of them switched in red states in a close race, it might reject Mr Trump success in the electoral college. It is easy to forget that Mr Trump loses elections.

The reason Mr Trump campaigns so hard versus the credibility of the ballot box is that he understands the tally box can defeat him.

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At the Conservative Political Action Conference in Texas on Saturday, former President Donald Trump dropped another tease that he will quickly reveal he is running for president in 2024. “We will make America happy once again. We will make America safe once again. And we will make America excellent again,” he informed the CPAC audience.

and we may have to do it once again.” Don’t doubt that he will. The FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday appears like it would put the brakes on the former president’s political aspirations. If anything, significant actions against him by the Justice Department, in this case connected to classified details Trump supposedly took with him from the White House, according to an NBC source familiar with what happened, is only likely to grease those ambitions further.

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Any worry he has of losing has definitely been displaced by a more severe one: doing time. Trump should pine for the Justice Department’s guard from prosecution that the governmental seal pays for. Trump might believe that an indictment might assist his political profile, promoting his longtime project theme of being an aggrieved martyr.

Even if Trump were founded guilty before the 2024 election, it would not likely be much before. He would nearly certainly be out on bail, still running for the presidency and declaring that the verdict would be reversed on appeal. As of late July, Trump stayed the leading option for the Republican presidential election, with about 50% assistance, according to the Real, Clear, Politics survey average and almost every specific poll that reveals him with enormous double-digit leads over his closest competitor.

We ignore them at our peril doing so suggests losing precious time both reminding Americans of the “clear and present risk” to our Constitution that he poses and getting ready for how best to beat him. First among those arguing Trump won’t run again was Michael Cohen. Trump’s former attorney who knows the guy along with anyone stated in November: “His fragile ego can not stand to be considered a two-time loser.” Cohen’s observation appeared practical then.

In recent weeks, we’ve experienced an avalanche of evidence from the House committee investigating the occasions of Jan. 6 about Trump’s prospective criminality leading up to and on that fateful day.

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And in February, the National Archives requested that the Justice Department look at whether Trump’s handling of White House records broke federal law. For this reason, any fear he has of losing has actually certainly been displaced by a more major one: doing time. Trump must pine for the Justice Department’s guard from prosecution that the governmental seal pays for.

And as soon as the presidency is won, are your people going to enforce the guidelines versus you? As for Cohen’s assertion that Trump would surrender his credibility if he lost a 2nd time, where’s the evidence that his fans would disbelieve his unavoidable claim that he in fact won?

Provided all these elements, whatever legal jeopardy he might be in, expect a Trump announcement right after the midterms saying he plans to be the first president to have ever had actually an election stolen and lived to win four years later.

Is there a Democrat who can take on Biden? (Alex Samuels, politics press reporter): I do not believe so, Sarah, especially if Trump is the candidate. If Trump announces that he’s running for a second term, I think: 1) Biden will run again, and 2) there won’t be a damaging main to take him down.

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Bernie Sanders stepping up to the plate and drawing in a decent share of the vote, but in 2024, I do not think he ‘d bother, or be successful. More like frenemies., senior elections expert): That’s a good point, Alex, about Democrats likely not wanting to take part in an untidy main.

If Trump looms large, that might motivate higher Democratic unity. Regardless, though, it’s extremely hard to take on an incumbent president in a primary no incumbent has actually ever lost renomination in the modern governmental primary period.

Yeah, and the incumbent presidents who have actually dealt with serious renomination fights (e. g., former President Jimmy Carter) lost their subsequent basic election. No Democrat will want to be blamed for tanking Biden’s opportunities versus Trump. Another problem: I understand surveys show that Democrats mostly do not desire Biden to run again, but celebration elites aren’t acting that way.

Carolyn Maloney stated she didn’t believe Biden would run again in 2024. Her primary opponents jumped all over her, and she had to apologize!.?.!! To me, that’s the sign of a celebration united behind their leader. (It’s practically Trump-like!) Yeah, I don’t see anybody running if Biden makes great on his stated intent to run again.