2024 Presidential Election Predictions

If Trump Runs Will He Win for Beginners

If sufficient of them switched in red states in a close race, it could reject Mr Trump victory in the electoral college. It is easy to forget that Mr Trump loses elections.

The factor Mr Trump campaigns so hard versus the trustworthiness of the tally box is that he knows the ballot box can beat him.

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At the Conservative Political Action Conference in Texas on Saturday, former President Donald Trump dropped another tease that he will quickly reveal he is running for president in 2024. “We will make America happy once again. We will make America safe once again. And we will make America great again,” he told the CPAC audience.

and we might need to do it once again.” Don’t doubt that he will. The FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday seems like it would put the brakes on the previous president’s political aspirations. If anything, dramatic actions against him by the Justice Department, in this case connected to categorized info Trump presumably took with him from the White Home, according to an NBC source familiar with what occurred, is only likely to grease those aspirations further.

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Any worry he has of losing has definitely been displaced by a more severe one: doing time. Trump should pine for the Justice Department’s shield from prosecution that the governmental seal pays for.

He would almost undoubtedly be out on bail, still running for the presidency and claiming that the verdict would be reversed on appeal.

Among those arguing Trump will not run again was Michael Cohen. Cohen’s observation seemed reasonable then.

In recent weeks, we have actually experienced an avalanche of evidence from your house committee examining the occasions of Jan. 6 about Trump’s potential criminality leading up to and on that fateful day. Even before Monday’s search, we saw news of an accelerating Justice Department investigation thinking about whether Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election.

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And in February, the National Archives asked for that the Justice Department look at whether Trump’s handling of White Home records broke federal law. Any worry he has of losing has undoubtedly been displaced by a more severe one: doing time. Trump needs to pine for the Justice Department’s guard from prosecution that the presidential seal affords.

And once the presidency is won, are your individuals going to implement the rules versus you? As for Cohen’s assertion that Trump would surrender his credibility if he lost a second time, where’s the evidence that his fans would disbelieve his unavoidable claim that he really won?

Offered all these aspects, whatever legal jeopardy he may be in, anticipate a Trump announcement quickly after the midterms stating he intends to be the very first president to have ever had actually an election taken and lived to win 4 years later.

Is there a Democrat who can take on Biden? (Alex Samuels, politics press reporter): I do not believe so, Sarah, especially if Trump is the nominee. If Trump reveals that he’s running for a second term, I believe: 1) Biden will run again, and 2) there will not be a destructive primary to take him down.

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Bernie Sanders stepping up to the plate and attracting a decent share of the vote, however in 2024, I don’t think he ‘d bother, or be successful. More like frenemies., senior elections expert): That’s a good point, Alex, about Democrats likely not wanting to get involved in an untidy main.

If Trump looms large, that may motivate greater Democratic unity. Regardless, however, it’s very difficult to take on an incumbent president in a main no incumbent has ever lost renomination in the contemporary presidential main age. There have actually been some main surveys evaluating Biden versus a multicandidate field that have him leading but only in the 30s in terms of support.

Yeah, and the incumbent presidents who have faced serious renomination fights (e. g., former President Jimmy Carter) lost their subsequent general election. No Democrat will wish to be blamed for tanking Biden’s possibilities versus Trump. Another complication: I understand polls reveal that Democrats largely do not desire Biden to run once again, but celebration elites aren’t acting that method.

Carolyn Maloney said she didn’t think Biden would run again in 2024. Her main opponents jumped all over her, and she had to say sorry!.?.!! To me, that’s the sign of a party unified behind their leader. (It’s almost Trump-like!) Yeah, I don’t see anyone running if Biden makes great on his stated intent to run again.